Hong Kong’s Retail Leasing Market Remains Polarised as Stable Prime Streets Contrast with Continued Mall Rental Adjustment

• Prime streets consolidate earlier gains: Rents across all four core districts were flat QoQ in Q3, while major shopping centre rents fell 1.3%.
• Discretionary spending drives retail growth: Sales rose 8.5% YoY in January–August, led by jewellery (+22.6%), consumer durables (+19.8%) and online sales (+23.0%).
• Visitor growth requires stronger spending conversion: Long-haul arrivals rose 20.7% YoY, but same-day visitors continued to outpace overnight growth.
• Hobby retail supports larger and upper-floor formats: Destination-led concepts are expanding, although accessibility, catchment and operator strength remain critical.
• New supply clouds the rental outlook: Around 8m sq ft is planned from 2026 onwards, with Q4 rental forecasts ranging from +3% for prime streets to -5% for suburban retail.